The aim of this study was to develop a forecast of the Polish economy’s demand for coal for the generation of electricity and heat, and to determine the role of hard coal and lignite mining in meeting the country’s energy needs. Particular attention was paid to the achievement of the primary objective of energy policy, which is to ensure the country’s energy security.

The complexity of the issues addressed in this study, the interactions between the coal mining sector and the energy sector, and the long-term research horizon required the adoption of an appropriate methodology for developing a forecast of coal demand for electricity and heat generation. For this purpose, mathematical modeling methods implemented on computer platforms dedicated to the analysis of fuel and energy systems were used. This is the methodology currently employed to solve such problems, allowing for the capture of the complexity of fuel and energy systems and the quantitative analysis of their development.

This study takes the form of scenario analysis, and the results should be interpreted in light of the assumptions made in each scenario. The core element of the scenarios is the supply capacity of individual primary energy sources, with particular emphasis on the potential for expanding hard coal and lignite production. The study also takes into account possible changes in the conditions under which the Polish fuel sector will operate in the future, such as the level of final energy demand or climate protection commitments reflected in the price paths of CO2 emission allowances.

The general conclusion of the study points to the need to undertake the necessary investments to ensure the development of hard coal and lignite mining in order to guarantee stable and reliable supplies for the domestic energy sector. However, this outlook is not without risks, which the study sought to highlight by identifying situations and factors that could adversely affect the sector’s development.