Energy Challenges in Europe by 2020: A Scenario Analysis
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy; Luxembourg 1996; translation: GIPH 1996
“Analysis of the Development of the Energy Sector up to the Year 2020” was prepared as a document accompanying the political debate involving stakeholders, the European Parliament, and the Council of Ministers, which addressed the problems of energy sector development at the threshold of the 21st century. This analysis also helped in the preparation of the White Paper entitled “Energy Policy of the European Union.”
The most important message emerging from the detailed studies was the issue of creating a modern, technology-based energy sector that would also contribute to sustainable development. Reflecting a radically changing world increasingly shaped by competition, the analysis, through a scenario-based approach, examined possible options and courses of action that could influence the emergence of a broad framework for policy addressing certain general policy issues.
The main issue concerned the role that energy plays in the production process. The analysis drew attention to the existence of significant potential in the production and use of energy. The study “Energy Challenges in Europe up to the Year 2012” was developed on the basis of various possible scenarios reflecting the uncertainty and the specific transitional phase prevailing in the energy sector during the second half of the 1990s. Four different types of scenarios were developed, making it possible to present the likely future of the energy sector in Europe over a 25-year perspective.